by Carol Switzer
Adapted from research by Dr Gregor Walter-Drop
Political changes in international cooperation
The pluralisation of actors
The landscape of international cooperation and development is rapidly evolving, marked by the emergence of new actors at both national and sub-national levels. Notably, China and Russia have significantly increased their presence in the Global South, especially in Africa. China's approach centres on trade, resource extraction, and large-scale infrastructure projects under initiatives like the Belt & Road Initiative, emphasising broad economic development. In contrast, Russia focuses on security and military cooperation, often through unofficial channels such as mercenaries from the Wagner group, with minimal economic investment.
India has also launched a new Africa strategy, while regional powers such as Turkey, Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are enhancing their activities, leveraging their Muslim identity and lack of a colonial past. Additionally, non-state actors, including NGOs, schools, universities, and hospitals, are expanding from the Global North into the Global South, complicating the donor landscape. Western development actors now face a more complex environment with increased rivalry and competition, making it challenging to pursue value-based agendas and attach political conditions related to democracy, the rule of law, and good governance.
The pluralisation of non-state actors offers new opportunities for cooperation. Non-state actors like churches, religious NGOs, and political foundations can support value promotion while circumventing state-level politics. While the rise of new state actors requires adaptation, non-state actors are viewed as potential partners.
The return of geopolitics
The pluralisation of development actors mirrors broader changes in the international system, moving away from a US-dominated unipolar moment. There is a growing consensus on increasing political and economic rivalry, which impacts development and international cooperation. Regions like Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso are becoming hotspots of geopolitical competition. The war in Ukraine and tensions over Taiwan highlight growing insecurity, with foreign policy increasingly evaluated through geopolitical lenses.
This era is not a return to the Cold War but rather the re-emergence of geopolitics, where foreign policy must meet strategic demands. The classical Liberal International Order is weakening, with global multilateralism and international institutions losing strength. China is promoting alternative international institutions, leading the Global South in a divisive manner. The period from the late 1990s to the mid-2010s, marked by global consensus on sustainable development, is now viewed as a bygone "honeymoon" period, replaced by an era of Realpolitik.
Development policy is increasingly converging with foreign policy, driven by geopolitical interests. There is a risk that geopolitical interests will override development cooperation concerns. Observers are divided on whether this shift undermines sustainable development goals or combines interest- and value-driven policies for mutual benefit.
The "new self-esteem" of the Global South
The Global South, particularly BRICS countries, is experiencing a rise in identity, self-perception, and assertiveness, often referred to as "new emancipation" or "new self-esteem." This shift is evident in political actions such as non-alignment on issues like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Countries in the Global South now have more agency and bargaining power, becoming co-creators of international relations.
This new self-esteem is linked to the pluralisation of actors and the return of geopolitics, allowing recipient countries to leverage partnerships and challenge Western dominance. There is also a shift in the global discourse on colonialism, with increased recognition of former colonial powers' responsibilities. New actors like China, Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia exploit these narratives to reshape international relations, disregarding the Western democracy vs non-democracy divide.
Western countries must now act with increased caution and credibility, making symmetrical partner relationships and overcoming paternalistic approaches essential. Hypocrisy is quickly identified, and alternative partners are available, making value-driven agendas harder to pursue.
Democratic disappointment and decline
Democratic decline is a trend cutting across the North-South divide. Authoritarian and military takeovers have occurred in several African countries, and the narrative of "democratic disappointment" suggests that Western-inspired democratic agendas have not yielded significant benefits. Remarkably, non-democratic development models, like those of China, appear more effective, as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Correlation between democracy and government effectiveness.
Right-wing populism is rising in donor countries, challenging core democratic principles and development policies. The 2024 elections, with potential right-wing victories, add to this tension. The decline of democracy as a dominant political system and normative idea is a common thread in these trends.
Overall, the return of geopolitics and the new self-esteem in the Global South lead to a "de-norming" of international development policy, with value-based agendas crowded out by geopolitical considerations.
Ecological changes
Climate change
One of the most critical ecological trends is the acceleration of climate change and its consequences, especially given insufficient policy measures to combat it. This is particularly significant for the US and China, the largest CO2 emitters. There is scepticism about achieving the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees, with emerging evidence suggesting that even staying within this limit may bring severe consequences. The discussion includes concerns about reaching "tipping points" sooner than expected, potentially triggering self-reinforcing effects such as the melting of polar ice caps, thawing permafrost, and disrupted ocean currents. These changes could result in catastrophic climate change, rendering large areas uninhabitable and causing significant humanitarian crises.
The potential consequences for international development are severe, especially for regions like the Sahel in Africa, where climate change may disrupt subsistence farming, water access, and basic livelihoods. This could lead to humanitarian disasters and large migratory flows, straining the political, social, and ecological capacities of neighbouring regions and countries, and increasing migratory pressures on Europe. The issues of climate justice and humanitarian action are expected to become more prominent in North-South relations. Despite these challenges, "climate mainstreaming" is not yet a standard practice in development policy planning.
Economic changes
Strategic resources and geo-economics
Access to energy and raw materials has always been crucial in global economics. Recently, competition with China and the fallout from the Russian aggression against Ukraine have highlighted the urgency of an economic green transition in the industrialised world. African countries possess strategically valuable resources such as coltan, cobalt, oil, gas, sunlight, and the infrastructure for renewable energy. The geopolitical importance of these resources is growing, and the concept of "geoeconomics" underscores their role in global competition. This shift is changing the power dynamics for resource-rich African countries, which are now in a stronger position relative to international actors interested in cooperation schemes.
De-globalisation and regional trade blocs
De-globalisation refers to the slowdown or reversal of globalisation trends. Increasing geopolitical rivalry, lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic, and the rise of right-wing populism are driving this shift. De-globalisation involves replacing global supply chains with "friend shoring" or "ally shoring," leading to more fragmented economic relations based on regional trade blocs. The EU's 2023 European Economic Security Strategy, which promotes closer economic collaboration within the G7 and NATO, exemplifies this trend.
Social changes
Demographic change
Demographic shifts are significant in both the Global North and South, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where the population is expected to double to 2.5 billion by 2050. Africa's median age is 19, in stark contrast to Europe's aging population. The implications of this "youthquake" are controversial, ranging from rapid economic growth to environmental degradation and political instability. The potential for a "demographic dividend" through a high proportion of working-age individuals is debated, with past expectations of Africa becoming "the next China" unmet due to governance issues and business climate deficiencies.
The demographic boom necessitates sustainability strategies to mitigate environmental stress and political instability. Migration pressures on Europe are expected to increase, and addressing social protection, health, and education systems is crucial.
Technological changes
Digitalisation and new technologies
Advancements in digital technology, AI, robotics, and 3D printing are transforming industries and public service delivery. While the core centres of digital innovation are in the US and East Asia, Africa is not disconnected. Electrification and the spread of mobile phones and broadband connectivity are significant developments. Initiatives like the African Union's Digital Transformation Strategy 2020-2030 and the World Bank's Digital Economy for Africa (DE4A) are increasing broadband access.
Technological innovation holds potential for overcoming infrastructure deficiencies and fostering economic development in Africa. Examples include the M-Pesa mobile money system and drone-based delivery of medical supplies. However, there are concerns about the dominance of the Global North in technological innovation, potential dependencies, and the misuse of technology for control and misinformation. Additionally, AI, robotics, and 3D printing might undermine development pathways based on cheap labour, posing challenges for Africa's economic growth.
Overall, the implications of technological changes for international cooperation include supporting ICT-based solutions and enabling educational institutions to prepare students for the ICT economy.
Conclusion
The evolving dynamics of international cooperation call for a nuanced approach that leverages the potential of non-state actors while carefully navigating the integration of development policy with geopolitical interests. Western countries must prioritise credible, equitable partnerships and adapt to the growing influence and self-esteem of the Global South. Additionally, the urgent challenges posed by climate change, demographic shifts, and technological advancements necessitate comprehensive strategies that emphasise sustainability, social protection, and education to foster resilient and inclusive development.